The 2015 NFL Draft is now in the history books. Reflecting back on the Rams’ selections this year, one word keeps coming to mind: throwback. This draft was essentially a “throwback” to many Rams drafts of the 70’s and early 80’s. A decade where running the football predominated offensive schemes, and greatly influenced positional value in the NFL draft.
Los Angeles Rams 1974-1975 NFL Drafts
The accompanying chart presents a condensed version (they had 15 picks) of the Rams’ 1974 draft selections, highlighting the many similarities between their 1974 and 2015 drafts:
Round | Position | Player | School |
---|---|---|---|
1.11 | RB | John Cappelletti | Penn St. |
3.76 | OT | Al Oliver | UCLA |
4.99 | QB | Norris Weese | Mississippi |
4.102 | OT | Frank Johnson | California-Riverside |
11.284 | OT | Rick Hayes | Washington |
12.31 | OG | Roger Freberg | UCLA |
13.336 | OT | Pete Solverson | Drake |
Of the five offensive linemen selected by the Rams in the 1974 draft, not one ended up playing a single down in the NFL. The Rams quickly remedied the mistakes made in the 1974 draft, selecting another 5 offensive linemen in the following (1975) draft (Harrah and France became mainstays on the Rams’ OL for many years):
Round | Position | Player | School |
---|---|---|---|
1.11 | OG | Dennis Harrah | Miami (Fla.) |
1.2 | OT | Doug France | Ohio St. |
3.61 | C | Geoff Reece | Washington St. |
3.67 | OG | Dan Nugent | Auburn |
5.126 | C | Rick Nuzum | Kentucky |
Los Angeles Rams’ Draft Selections (Running Back) – 1972-1983
Much has been made of the Rams’ propensity for drafting running backs in the Snead/Fisher era. In 2012, the Rams selected Isaiah Pead in the 2nd round, followed by Daryl Richardson in the 7th round. The following year, a pair of 6th round picks were traded to move up and select Zac Stacy in the 5th round. Tre Mason was selected in the 3rd round of the 2014 draft. Todd Gurley was chosen with the 10th overall pick in the 2015 draft.
Given their depth at running back, and in a league now dominated by the passing game, many believe the Rams have “overdrafted” the running back position in the last 4 years. The Rams’ recent draft history of selecting multiple running backs is reminiscent of how the Rams drafted for the position in an earlier era, more of a “throwback” than “overdrafting”.
In the 12 drafts encompassing the years 1972 to 1983, the Rams spent a considerable amount of early-round draft capital on the running back position. Results ran across the whole spectrum, from spectacularly successful (Eric Dickerson) to colossal busts (Barry Redden and Elvis Peacock).
The accompanying chart presents the running backs selected by the Rams in the first three rounds of the NFL draft between 1972 and 1983:
Year | Round | Player | School |
---|---|---|---|
1972 | 2.3 | Jim Bertelsen | Texas |
1972 | 3.7 | Lawrence McCutcheon | Colorado St. |
1973 | 2.31 | Cullen Bryant | Colorado |
1974 | 1.11 | John Cappelletti | Penn St. |
1977 | 3.79 | Wendell Tyler | UCLA |
1978 | 1.2 | Elvis Peacock | Oklahoma |
1979 | 2.54 | Eddie Hill | Memphis |
1980 | 3.58 | Jewerl Thomas | San Jose St. |
1982 | 1.14 | Barry Redden | Richmond |
1983 | 1.02 | Eric Dickerson | SMU |
Comparing Draft Strategies (Offense): 1972-83 vs. 2014-15
From 1973 to 1984 the Rams had a regular season record of 113-61-1. 10 winning records, 10 playoff berths, and one Super Bowl appearance in 12 seasons. Those teams were characterized by top-ten defenses, powerful rushing attacks, average QB play, relatively balanced offenses, and consistently dominant offensive and defensive lines. The Rams’ offensive identity was clearly defined in those years, and how they approached each draft (and who they selected) was a reflection of that identity.
Have the Rams developed a consistent, clearly defined offensive identity since the arrival of Fisher and Snead in 2012? The answer is NO. Watching the games, poring over statistics, and looking back at the Rams’ drafts/player acquisitions from 2012-14 is all the evidence one needs to answer no. I’m still scratching my head about the brief flirtation with a spread offense in 2013, and the cost (in terms of draft capital and salary cap space) of that misadventure.
In the 2014 NFL Draft, the Rams took the first steps towards developing an “offensive identity”. They drafted OT Greg Robinson with the second overall pick, then added a pair of OL in the 7th round (Mitchell Van Dyk and Demetrius Rhaney). In addition, they selected RB Tre Mason in the 3rd round. In a draft class filled with outstanding WR’s, the Rams passed on selecting one. If OL Zack Martin had fallen to the Baltimore Ravens in the first round, the Rams had a deal in place to trade up for him.
Fast forward to the 2015 NFL Draft. The Rams’ selections left little doubt as to what their offensive identity would be in 2015 and beyond. The selection of Todd Gurley with the 10th overall pick, plus adding 4 offensive linemen (all proficient run blockers) in the 2nd to 6th rounds, sealed the deal.
Many have already defined the Rams’ 2015 draft (and by extension their new-found offensive identity) as a re-invention of “Fisherball”, and an attempt to mimic some of the more successful team building strategies employed by division rivals San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. In reality, the blueprint/origins of what the Rams tried to accomplish in this years NFL draft can be traced back to those Rams teams of the 70’s/early 80’s. Old-school, smash mouth football.
Offensive Identity: The Power Running Game
Can the Rams replicate the success of those run-centric teams of an earlier era, in today’s pass-happy NFL? Clearly Jeff Fisher believes they can. An offensive identity emphasizing a power running game is based on sound football principles that transcend eras:
- Minimizing turnovers. Keeping the ball on the ground creates fewer turnovers than through the air. Austin Davis and Shaun Hill combined for 20 turnovers last season (16 interceptions and 4 lost fumbles). The Rams’ running backs were responsible for 4 lost fumbles last season.
- If a team controls the clock and the football, it allows the opponents’ offense less time on the field, and less time to put together scoring drives.
- Controlling the clock and the football keeps your defense off the field, and allows the unit to remain fresh throughout the game (especially in the 4th quarter).
- Emphasizing the running game makes a whole lot of sense if your team doesn’t enjoy the benefit of having Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers throwing the football.
- The more an offense can keep a defense guessing, the more successful that offense will be. A reasonably balanced attack will always keep defense’s on their toes. A strong rushing attack opens up the passing game, especially play-action.
- In today’s pass-happy NFL, defense’s are becoming more and more geared/built to stop the pass. A powerful running back, behind a massive offensive line, can create mismatches similar to those enjoyed by Calvin Johnson-type WR’s against smaller CB’s.
St. Louis Rams 2015 NFL Draft Grades
Rnd | Pos | Player | School | Grade Need | Grade Value | Overall Grade |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Overall Grades | B | B- | B- | |||
1 | RB | Todd Gurley | Georgia | C+ | A- | B+ |
2 | OT | Rob Havenstein | Wisconsin | B+ | C+ | B |
3 | OT | Jamon Brown | Louisville | B | C- | C+ |
3 | QB | Sean Mannion | Oregon State | B | C+ | B- |
4 | OT | Andrew Donnal | Iowa | B | B | B |
6 | WR | Bud Sasser | Missouri | C+ | B- | C+ |
6 | OG | Cody Wichmann | Fresno State | B- | B | B |
7 | ILB | Bryce Hager | Baylor | B+ | B | B+ |
7 | DE | Martin Ifedi | Memphis | B- | B | B |
Looking back at the Rams’ drafts under Les Snead and Jeff Fisher, they’ve had the most success with picks that represented very good value/were close to BPA at the time of their selection. They’ve had less success with picks that were costly in terms of draft capital and/or perceived as reaches. Examples of excellent value/BPA selections:Aaron Donald, Tre Mason, T.J. McDonald, Janoris Jenkins and E.J. Gaines. Examples of costly picks/reaches: Tavon Austin, Brian Quick and Isaiah Pead. This years draft gave us some of both: selecting a top-5 talent (Gurley) with the 10th overall pick, and reaching (by at least a round) on all 3 picks (Havenstein, Brown and Mannion) in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
The Rams entered the 2015 NFL Draft with a four-point plan:
- A strategic focus on improving the offense as a whole, with the primary goal of drafting players who would help in creating a power running offensive identity.
- Selecting RB Todd Gurley in the first round. Gurley was at the top of the Rams’ draft board.
- Selecting multiple offensive linemen. The offensive line was the Rams’ biggest need heading into the draft.
- Selecting a mid-round developmental prospect at the QB position. The Rams don’t have a QB on the roster signed beyond 2015.
The Rams stuck to their plan throughout the draft, and deserve credit for doing so. They certainly accomplished what they set out to do, at least on a strategic level. The biggest questions arising from the Rams’ 2015 draft are regarding the quality of their selections. Will Todd Gurley produce results closer to Eric Dickerson’s career numbers, or closer to those of Elvis Peacock and John Cappelletti? Will the 4 offensive linemen selected turn out like the Rams’ OL draft class of 1974, or produce at least a pair of quality starters?
It’s reasonable to suggest that Gurley (if he stays healthy) will become a top-ten running back in the NFL, and produce multiple 1000-yard rushing seasons. Havenstein and Donnal (if moved inside) could become solid starters, although neither are ideal solutions for the Rams’ OL in 2015. Expect the OL to go through growing pains this season, for the Rams may end up having to start 4 players with less than a season of starting experience.
Benny Cunningham, Isaiah Pead and Chase Reynolds all become Free Agents after the 2015 season. Don’t be surprised if the Rams once again select a running back in the first three rounds of the 2016 NFL Draft. After selecting 3 offensive linemen in the 2014 NFL Draft – and 4 offensive linemen in this years draft – it should come as no surprise if the Rams invest multiple draft selections on the line in next years draft.
The 2016 NFL Draft promises to be an interesting one for the Rams. The needs list next year could be much longer than in 2015. The Rams will have 20 players eligible for Free Agency after the 2015 season. Among the more prominent names on the list: Nick Foles, Brian Quick, Nick Fairley, William Hayes, Greg Zuerlein, Trumaine Johnson, Janoris Jenkins, Rodney McLeod and Mark Barron.
St. Louis Rams 2015 NFL Draft: Dubs’ Do-Over
Round | Position | Player | School |
---|---|---|---|
1.1 | RB | Todd Gurley | Georgia |
2.57 | OG | A.J. Cann | South Carolina |
3.72 | OT | Rob Havenstein | Wisconsin |
3.89 | DT | Carl Davis | Iowa |
4.101 | QB | Sean Mannion | Oregon State |
6.215 | OG | Cody Wichmann | Fresno State |
7.227 | OL | La'el Collins | LSU |
In this draft do-over, the Rams make one additional trade. They move up 18 spots, from 4.119 to 4.101, to select QB Sean Mannion. The Rams give up their 4th round pick (4.119), plus 6th and 7th round selections in 2015, and a conditional late-round pick in 2017. In return, the New England Patriots give the Rams their 4th round pick (4.101) in 2015.
The draft do-over retains much of the composition of the Rams’ actual draft, and addresses the Rams’ major needs in an in-depth manner. Gurley, Wichmann, Havenstein and Mannion are holdovers from the Rams’ actual draft. Havenstein and Mannion represent better value selected a half-round later (and in all likelihood both would have been available later in the draft). The three “new” selections (La’el Collins, A.J. Cann and Carl Davis) are all excellent value picks that significantly upgrade the quality of the Rams’ draft.
A.J. Cann was the 2nd-highest graded pure guard in the draft, a late 1st round/early 2nd round talent who fell to the 3rd round (similar to Larry Warford and Gabe Jackson in prior drafts). A 4-year starter for the Gamecocks in the SEC, Cann is a powerful drive-blocker, ideally suited to the Rams’ power-running scheme.
In the offseason, the Rams added DT Nick Fairley through Free Agency. They also released Kendall Langford, and didn’t re-sign Alex Carrington. These moves left the Rams one player short on the DT depth chart. In addition, Fairley becomes a Free Agent after the 2015 season. Carl Davis was regarded as a late 1st round/early 2nd round talent, who fell to the third round due to concerns about his work ethic and poor pre-draft interviews. It’s a telling sign that perhaps the best GM in the NFL (Ozzie Newsome) and the Baltimore Ravens thought highly enough of his talent to select Davis one pick (No. 90) after the Rams’ actual selection in the 3rd round.
The La’el Collins story is well-known. Collins dropped off of or was severely downgraded on every teams’ draft board due to a murder investigation (he was never named a suspect) shortly before the draft. What’s not so well known is the fact that many teams (including the Rams) were interested in selecting Collins at various points in the draft. Why did Collins end up becoming a UDFA? Robert Klemko of MMQB uncovered the truth, in a detailed look at Collins and the draft:
“Collins’ agents told teams that if he was drafted after the third round, he would not sign with the team and would instead sit out a year and enter next year’s draft. It was a gamble with multiple risks, and teams could have simply ignored the threat. After the draft, one of Collins’ agents admitted that the move was a bluff.”
“We can put it on the record now: We were never going back in the draft,” his agency’s general counsel, Rick Smith, told Klemko. “If someone had drafted him, we would’ve had a long, long discussion about it, but at the end of the day you can’t go back in the draft. He could get injured, gain weight, or 10 great tackles could come out. Too many risks. The bluff worked.”
If the Rams had called the bluff, and taken Collins with a 7th round pick, they would’ve had themselves a 1st round talent (and probable starter) at RT for the 2015 season. A gamble worth taking in my estimation. I was also a proponent of the Rams signing center Stefen Wisniewski in Free Agency. He signed a one-year prove it contract with Jacksonville for $2.5 million.
The Rams would have had a much better chance of establishing their offensive identity behind an offensive line that looked like this (and with selections more like their 1975 draft):
OC – Stefen Wisniewski
RG – Rodger Saffold
RT – La’el Collins
LG – A.J. Cann
LT – Greg Robinson
Hmmm….I think that a reach for Carl Davis would turn out to be a retch for the team. Rams players are graded critically by being self starters and highly motivated. Davis seems to have the “Barron syndrome”
Collins was mentally mis-queued by an overly hungry agent about his worth, and the NFL owner’s dogma. A neophyte player does not tell his future bosses what they are going do do or else. Yes, he is good, but found out that humility trumps talent in this particular area. I call it the “RGII syndrome”.
Collins went to the Cowboys. He’s just another player there. That team seems to have its own ecosystem for “unique” players.
Ultimately I can’t complain about this draft.
F. Beezy you and I both liked Cann but I’m not sure how much the Rams did. They seem to like their lineman with some badonkadonk…some junk in the their trunk. I don’t think it’s a versitlity thing so much as they just like big lineman.
Havenstein may or may not have been a reach but if they had a second round grade on him then clearly they think he wasn’t. If nothing else the Rams can start running to the right side as often as the left…something they’ve not been as willing to do with Joe-Bark.
Jamon Brown’s the interesting choice. Big and athletic but not a great college tackle. I wasn’t as high on him as I was on his teamate Miller but then again I was looking more for guards and less at tackles that could move inside to guard….we’ll see. Could be that Donnal initially wins that starting left guard spot.
Center? Again I like Wisniewski but only if the Rams felt they needed help at center. Judging by their offseason and subsequent draft, clearly they don’t.
Loved Carl Davis at the senior bowl and was a bit surprised to see him drop as far as he did. Maybe there’s something there we’re not aware of. But discounting that and with the addition of Fairly, where does he play?
He’s built a bit like Brockers but his play is more akin Donald. That is he tends to win on quickness rather than power while the Rams could use more of the latter trait in my estimation. …they could use a good backup 1 tech to Brockers. I’m not sure Davis could fit that role although I wouldn’t mind seeing him try.
Again Collins was my top rated lineman. ..even ahead of Scherff, but I can’t complain about passing on him late as every other team in the league did….even the Cowboys who no doubt would draft Charlie Manson were he a free sociopath with some game.
I guess what I’m most happy about is 2 things that didn’t happen. One was re-sign Joe Barksdale as I viewed that a step sideways rather than foreword and two not drafting Andrus Peat which seemed likely at that point in the draft as I think, like Joeseppy Barksaruni, philosophically speaking, a step in….not the right direction…..hell, maybe they’ll draft 4 more lineman next year….the core of this team is maybe as strong as it’s ever been under any coach since the Knox erea with all those pro bowlers at so many positions……wait, I do have one minor complaint. I would like to have seen T.J. Clemmings in horns but obviously this year’s draft had an emphasis on plug-n-play more so than talent.
Loved everything you said except for
The 99 team was stacked arguably better than anything Knox ever fielded IMO. Not a knock, different times, but by going by team results, Pro Bowlers, and HOFs I would have to say the 99 team exceeded most marks.
Offensively speaking agreed.
But overall I mercifully beg to differ…..the ’99 team had a hof quarterback. Thoses tend to go a long way in determining your fate.
That team was seriously stacked on the DEFENSE too.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/ram/1999_roster.htm
Dissagree there. Great pass rush which was help by a high scoring offense forcing oponents to abandon the run early but porous secondary. If the pass rush couldn’t get home, they could stop few with those db’s.
A perspective with bad dreams-
You’ve put a lot of thought into this todd, so I’m not being contraire to your points. I keep coming back to feeling that history could repeat itself, for example-
In past years we have built the Rams offense around a franchise QB with pass-happy schemes in mind, but with no WR’s to compliment the game plan. Eventually that would have been worked out. Then it happened. The one player that the entire plan was built around went down, never to recover. The Rams had to start over practically from scratch.
Now the Rams have a different direction. We are a Run First offence, with the corresponding drafted players to support that plan. We have our franchise running back to support that run first scheme.
Do I have the feeling that we are in the same vulnerable box of years past by committing our entire offense to ONE plan supported by ONE player? Yes I do.
I feel we are over-committed to the run, as we were over committed to the pass with Sam.
We don’t need a single Hero, we need the Avengers Hero’s .
Perhaps.
But whether they are committed to either the run or pass, whether it’s Sam Bradford, or Nick Foles/Todd Gurley, the supporting cast is much stronger and talented than it has been.
I don’t know if they’re committed too much towards the run but if they intend to start 3 first year starters and 1 second year starter on the offensive line…..well, I would guess it’s much easier on the quarterback to run block than pass block.
Since not one team took the risk with Collins, even with 6th or 7th rounds picks that are almost throwaways, I still think there was something going on behind the scenes. Seriously, not one of 32 teams used a 7th rounder on Collins? And for better or worse Snead-Fish have clearly had a plan. All their offensive line draft picks (including GRob last year) have come with the caveat good, mauling run blocker who needs work on pass blocking. And they used a 1st round pick and a third round pick on running backs each of the past two years. I was disappointed with some of the draft picks this year, but I see the plan and I am willing give them a pass until we see whether it works or not
Oh Dubs would I LOVE your Do-Over!!! If only….once again:)
I am concerned that with the comparisons to your ’74 and ’75 drafts. The ’75 draft was a success in huge part because they took their shots in the first two rounds….while they took others, it was those two that worked out. They understand that philosophy really well when it comes to DL.
Well, if you look at this year, then only Haverstein would likely make it, because he was really a third rounder who most would say they reached on, and Brown is honestly a 4th rounder in value. Remember we needed starters! So looking for OL starters below the 3rd round is highly unlikely. So half of our huge OL haul, has the decked stacked extremely against them. But would really like to be sitting here with Cann and Haverstein in the folds with Collins too.
Glad your feeling up to writing again.
Tru-bleu- How do you reconcile the stats of where O linemen are chosen in the draft with their success on the field? There seems to be a very wide gulf on all the graphs pertaining to draft position vs performance.
Nothing offical that’s for sure. Just my gut feel. But using the examples Dubs used in his article. The ’74 draft had a ton of OL bodies, taken all the way through the draft with selection in the 3rd, 4th, and god forbid the 11th, 12th and 13th…argh. Glad we don’t go that deep today. So even with all that beef, not one of them made it. Then in ’75 obviously in dire need to fix the prior year fiasco, they took OL picks in 1,1,3,3, and 5. Fewer bodies than the prior draft, but a lot better quality, and they strike it rich with two of those top picks.
As I mentioned, they understand the quality vs. quantity when it comes to selecting DL, but seem to usually go the other direction with most of the OL picks. I find that interesting….and puzzling.
I’m just afraid that this year’s haul to me, reminds me more of quantity over quality in our most pressing position of need IMO. I truly hope my gut feeling is way off, and they of course are hoping/needing? to find another EJ Gaines type production in those lower picks. Certainly not impossible, but again…the odds are stacked against the majority of these OL picks IMO.
Not being a scout, I can’t discount this years draft as good or bad. I can say they had a plan and stuck with it.
Yea I was so mad, only because they didn’t pick who I thought they should have. But again I am not the professional, nor am I an expert.
I do like the Gurley pick now, and having Mason back there too gives one hell of a one two punch. I would have loved to have seen the Rams keep Stacey, and possibly package a deal with him and someone else in a trade to Dallas for Collins.
The lineman are what they are road graders, and as Frank said having one hell of a running game can cause a serious mis match. As everyone is concentrating on DB’s and Gurley is a tough runner. I went and looked at videos of Todd, and he looked so familiar. Then I went and looked at old videos of Dickerson. It is amazing how similar their running styles are.
As far as the OL, they obviously see something more then I do in their talent. The Do over to me would be awesome, but again , they are the experts not me. I just hope they can protect Foles. Jones and Rhaney are unknowns and could possibly turn out to be strong starters. Fisher and Beaudreaux are high on both of them, soo.
I can’t wait to see Gurley run when they bring him in. Until then, Mason is gonna have a lot to prove, and I have a feeling he WILL big time.
They have a similar skillset but the running styles are completely different…..but yes Dickerson, Walker, Jackson, and Dupree come to mind when watching Gurley.
Man, I completely forgot about Marcus. Anothe knee injury back. Dr’s are much better now thank God. I could only imagine how good he would have been had he not injured that knee. I loved watching that dude run.
His cuts to me look very similar to Eric’s and the way he straightens up in the open field and just basically takes off. I pray that knee is good to go and he is the new main stay for the Rams. For a long time.
Marcus’s problem is he didn’t want to work…..couldn’t even get in shape at Oklahoma.
If he’d had a different mental make up he just might have been the best of the bunch. He was a Ram once….for a short period of time.
I remember watching him play in the USFL, before his injury and the dude was awesome. Rams just got him damaged and your right mix in his mental issues and damaged legged made a mess. Without that the dude would have been awesome.
I think having Mason with Gurley it will push both to do their absolute best.